Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
