How The Unusual Season Broke the Conventional NFL Coach of the Year Formula.
Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.
On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.
Yet this year's race is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.
Here is how the ideal ballot could be structured.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.
Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.
In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!
Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.
Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.
The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.
After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.
Still
