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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|